The Second-Round Effects of the Agriculture Value Chain on Farmers’ Land Transfer-In: Evidence from the 2019 Land Economy Survey Data of Eleven Provinces in China

In the context of the separation of three rights of land and agricultural modernization, this paper is based on the land economic survey data from eleven provinces in China in 2019, covering the eastern, middle, and western regions of China. Based on the value chain theory and its “second-round effect”, which pertains to the multi-round effects of value chain distribution theory, various research methods such as Probit, Tobit, the two-part model, SFA, PSM, and the intermediary effect model are employed to analyze the direct impact of the agriculture value chain (AVC) on farmers’ land factor inputs and the income effects caused by them, which are the “second-round effect” of the AVC on land factor inputs. The research results show the following: Firstly, the AVC has a significant positive impact on the behavior and area of farmers’ land transferring-in, which helps guide farmers towards large-scale land operation. Secondly, the AVC significantly improves farmers’ production efficiency and promotes land transfer through differences in production efficiency, representing the “second-round effect” mechanism of the AVC on land factor inputs. Moreover, the AVC will increase farmers’ net land production income by 48.74%, which is the “second-round effect” of the AVC on farmers’ agricultural income and also the motivation for farmers’ land factor inputs. Finally, the expansion of land area and the improvement of production efficiency jointly increase farmers’ agricultural income, among which production efficiency plays a partial intermediary effect in increasing agricultural income if farmers join the AVC. This paper believes that we should further promote the market-oriented reform of land factors, support the innovation of the benefit linkage mechanism of the AVC, and promote appropriate areas of land operation by farmers, thereby achieving common prosperity and promoting agricultural modernization in China.