Utilization of machine learning models in predicting caries risk groups and oral health-related risk factors in adults

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to analyse the risk factors that affect oral health in adults and to evaluate the success of different machine learning algorithms in predicting these risk factors. Methods This study included 2000 patients aged 18 years and older who were admitted to the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Radiology, Faculty of Dentistry, Gaziantep University, between September and December 2023. In this study, patients completed a 30-item questionnaire designed to assess the factors that affect the decayed, missing, and filled teeth (DMFT). Clinical and radiological examinations were performed, and DMFT scores were calculated after completion of the questionnaire. The obtained data were randomly divided into a 75% training group and a 25% test group. The preprocessed dataset was analysed using various machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest and Multilayer Perceptron algorithms. Pearson's correlation test was also conducted to assess the correlation between participants' DMFT scores and oral health risk factors. The performance of each algorithm was evaluated to determine the most appropriate algorithm, and model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score on the test dataset. Results A statistically significant difference was found between various factors and DMFT-based risk groups ( p < 0.05), including age, sex, body mass index, tooth brushing frequency, socioeconomic status, employment status, education level, marital status, hypertension, diabetes status, renal disease status, consumption of sugary snacks, dry mouth status and screen time. When considering machine learning algorithms for risk group assessments, the Multilayer Perceptron model demonstrated the highest level of success, achieving an accuracy of 95.8%, an F1-score of 96%, and precision and recall rates of 96%. Conclusions Caries risk assessment using a simple questionnaire can identify individuals at risk of dental caries, determine the key risk factors, provide information to help reduce the risk of dental caries over time and ensure follow-up. In addition, it is extremely important to apply effective preventive treatments and to prevent the general health problems that are caused by the deterioration of oral health. The results of this study show the potential of machine learning algorithms for predicting caries risk groups, and these algorithms are promising for future studies.