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Abstract Background This study investigates the relationship between triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index trajectories and the results of ablation in patients with stage 3D atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods A retrospective cohort study was carried out on patients who underwent AF Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation (RFCA) at the Cardiology Department of the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University and Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province from January 2016 to December 2022. The main clinical endpoint was determined as the occurrence of atrial arrhythmia for at least 30 s following a 3-month period after ablation. Using a latent class trajectory model, different trajectory groups were identified based on TyG levels. The relationship between TyG trajectory and the outcome of AF recurrence in patients was assessed through Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results The study included 997 participants, with an average age of 63.21 ± 9.84 years, of whom 630 were males (63.19%). The mean follow-up period for the participants was 30.43 ± 17.75 months, during which 200 individuals experienced AF recurrence. Utilizing the minimum Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the maximum Entropy principle, TyG levels post-AF RFCA were divided into three groups: Locus 1 low-low group ( n = 791), Locus 2 low-high-low group ( n = 14), and Locus 3 high-high group ( n = 192). Significant differences in survival rates among the different trajectories were observed through the Kaplan-Meier curve ( P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed a significant association between baseline TyG level and AF recurrence outcomes (HR = 1.255, 95% CI: 1.087–1.448). Patients with TyG levels above 9.37 had a higher risk of adverse outcomes compared to those with levels below 8.67 (HR = 2.056, 95% CI: 1.335–3.166). Furthermore, individuals in Locus 3 had a higher incidence of outcomes compared to those in Locus 1 (HR = 1.580, 95% CI: 1.146-2). Conclusion The TyG trajectories in patients with stage 3D AF are significantly linked to the outcomes of AF recurrence. Continuous monitoring of TyG levels during follow-up may help in identifying patients at high risk of AF recurrence, enabling the early application of effective interventions.
Jia et al. (Fri,) studied this question.