The Sample Average Approximation Method for Solving Two-Stage Stochastic Programs with Endogenous Uncertainty

Real-world decision-making problems involve Type 1 decision-dependent uncertainty, where the probability distribution of the stochastic process depends on the model decisions. However, few studies focus on two-stage stochastic programs with this type of endogenous uncertainty, and those that do lack general methodologies. We thus propose herein a general method for solving a class of these programs based on the transformation of random variables, a technique widely employed in probability and statistics. The proposed method is tailored to large-scale problems with discrete or continuous endogenous random variables. The random variable transformation allows the use of the sample average approximation (SAA) method, which provides optimality convergence guarantees under certain conditions. We show that, for some classical distributions, the proposed method reduces to solving mixed-integer linear or convex programs. Finally, we validate this method by applying it to a network design and facility-protection problem, considering distinct decision-dependent distributions for the random variables. Whereas most distributions result in a nonlinear nonconvex deterministic equivalent program, the proposed method solves mixed-integer linear programs in all cases. In addition, it produces attractive performance estimators for the SAA method in a reasonable computational time and outperforms the case in which the endogenous distribution defines a mixed-integer deterministic equivalent.