A newly developed scoring scale for premature AMI patients achieved an AUC of 0.83, significantly outperforming the GRACE score for predicting cardiogenic death and stroke.
Does a novel prognostic risk prediction model accurately predict cardiogenic death and stroke within one year in premature AMI patients compared to the GRACE score?
A novel 7-predictor scoring system accurately predicts 1-year cardiogenic death and stroke in premature AMI patients (≤55 years), significantly outperforming the standard GRACE score.
Absolute Event Rate: 0% vs 0%
BACKGROUND: The incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) is rising among younger populations. Despite advancements in treatment protocols, improvements in morbidity and mortality remain limited. OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for cardiogenic death and stroke within one year in prematureAMI patients (≤55 years) and to develop a prognostic risk prediction model and scoring scale for comprehensive risk assessment. METHODS: Utilizing clinical study NCT03297164 and the follow-up center database, we included 3630 participants enrolled from January 2017 to August 2022 to create training and testing sets. An external set (n = 472) was then selected. Cox proportional hazards and LASSO regression were employed to identify predictive factors, and β coefficients from multivariable Cox regression were utilized to develop the scoring scale. RESULTS: Seven predictors were selected. The scoring scale achieved an AUC of 0.75 (0.66-0.84) in the test set and 0.77 (0.63-0.91) in the external set, outperforming the GRACE score (0.61 and 0.50, respectively). Based on event rate distributions, patients were stratified into three risk groups, with significant differences in event rates observed across subsets (log-rank test, P < 0.05). Further optimization of binning strategies, guided by the correlation between predictors and outcomes, resulted in a model with an AUC of 0.83 (0.72-0.93) in the external set. A corresponding web application was developed for supplementary risk assessment. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and validated a practical scoring scale and a prediction model based on optimized binning strategies for premature AMI patients, offering a comprehensive risk assessment to support clinical decision-making.
Hou et al. (Tue,) reported a other. A newly developed scoring scale for premature AMI patients achieved an AUC of 0.83, significantly outperforming the GRACE score for predicting cardiogenic death and stroke.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: