This study examines how business activity responds to local taxation, specifically property tax and local sales tax, in Nevada. Using county-level data for the period 1999–2014, we assess the impact of these taxes on various business activity indicators, including employment, annual payroll, the number of establishments, and the number of small establishments categorized by size. Unlike previous studies that primarily focus on state-level taxation, our research delves into the effects of local tax instruments. By analyzing different components of the property tax (e.g., school district, county, and special district rates) and evaluating the specific effects of local sales tax changes, we provide a nuanced understanding of the local tax–business activity relationship. To address potential policy endogeneity in the sales tax rate, we instrument the sales tax rate using the lagged share of registered Democrats and implement an IV (control-function) spatial Durbin framework, ensuring robust estimates of within-period associations and spatial spillovers. Our analysis is intentionally confined to the 1999–2014 institutional regime, when Nevada businesses were primarily exposed to property and sales taxes. The estimates should, therefore, be interpreted as evidence on how the local tax mix and its components correlate with business activity under this pre-2015 fiscal structure, rather than as a direct forecast for the post-2015 environment shaped by subsequent policy changes and macroeconomic shocks. Across specifications, the IV-identified total effect of the sales tax rate is consistently negative for establishment-related outcomes. Nonetheless, the results remain informative for current debates on the design of local revenue systems because the underlying tax–service bundle and cross-jurisdictional spillover mechanisms continue to be central to local public finance.
Sun et al. (Fri,) studied this question.