Abstract Urbanization and land-use transformations are increasingly threatening peri-urban natural reserves, altering their ecological balance and long-term resilience. This study examines the anthropogenic impact on the Castelporziano Nature Reserve, a protected coastal Mediterranean ecosystem located on the outskirts of Rome, Italy. Despite its legal protection, the reserve is experiencing environmental stress due to urban expansion, increased water consumption, and changes in land use, all of which are modifying hydrological processes and affecting forest ecosystem stability. To assess these dynamics, we employed a multi-temporal analysis of vegetative vigor using Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The NDVI values were calibrated with extensive field surveys to improve accuracy in detecting vegetation decline. Our results show a significant reduction in photosynthetic activity within the deciduous oak forests, which cover 2,352 hectares and account for 52% of the total forested area. In parallel, a hydrological assessment was conducted using GIS-based spatial analysis and numerical modeling to evaluate changes in groundwater recharge patterns. The findings indicate that increasing impervious surfaces, coupled with substantial groundwater withdrawals for residential irrigation and recreational uses such as swimming pools, have significantly reduced infiltration capacity and exacerbated hydrological instability. The accumulation of runoff and the loss of groundwater recharge have further stressed the reserve’s forest ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to climate variability and extreme weather events. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated land and water management strategies to mitigate the effects of urban encroachment on peri-urban natural reserves. Sustainable planning approaches that balance conservation priorities with urban development are essential to ensure the long-term ecological resilience of protected areas like Castelporziano. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on landscape sustainability, emphasizing the critical role of adaptive governance in safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services in highly anthropized environments. Graphical abstract
Recanatesi et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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