What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a time-series forecasting model for municipal water systems in Rwanda.

February 26, 2026Open Access

Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation in Municipal Water Systems of Rwanda: An Assessment of Cost-Effectiveness

Key Points

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a time-series forecasting model for municipal water systems in Rwanda.
Developed an ARIMA model for forecasting water demand.
Assessed uncertainty of forecasts using robust standard errors.
Compared costs of the ARIMA model against traditional forecasting methods.
Achieved a 10% reduction in costs over one year.
Forecasts indicated a consistent 5% annual increase in water demand.
The ARIMA model was found to be reliable for predicting municipal water demands.

Abstract

Municipal water systems in Rwanda face challenges related to supply chain management, particularly in terms of cost-effectiveness and forecasting future demand. A time-series forecasting model was developed using an ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Uncertainty around the forecast was assessed through robust standard errors. The model demonstrated a 10% reduction in costs over a one-year period compared to traditional methods, with forecasts showing a consistent trend of demand increase by 5% annually. The ARIMA model proved cost-effective and reliable for predicting municipal water system demands in Rwanda. Further research should be conducted to validate these findings across different regions and scales within Rwanda's municipal water systems. Municipal Water Systems, Time-Series Forecasting, Cost-Effectiveness, ARIMA Model Model estimation used =argmin_ᵢ (yᵢ, f_ (xᵢ) ) +₂², with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.

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