ABSTRACT Analyzing the impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats and endangered species is important in protecting biodiversity. However, few studies have assessed the indirect impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats as well as endangered species. In this study, the impacts of cropland displacement triggered by urban expansion on natural habitats and endangered species are defined as indirect impacts. We took the Japan Sea Rim (JSR) region as study area, simulated future cropland displacement based on net primary productivity (NPP) data using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics‐urban (LUSD‐urban) model, and evaluated the direct and indirect impacts of urban expansion on natural habitats as well as endangered species at the whole JSR scale and national scale. The results indicated that during 1992–2020 natural habitat has lost 5575 km 2 due to direct encroachment of urban expansion. During 2020–2050, a direct decline of 1232–2793 km 2 of natural habitats is predicted under the influence of future urban expansion. Comparing with direct loss, an indirect decline of 6855–13,484 km 2 of natural habitats is predicted caused by future cropland displacement. The indirect loss of natural habitat in 2020–2050 will be 4.83–5.56 times more than the direct loss. Meanwhile, for endangered species, urban expansion will directly affect 833–837 endangered species in 2020–2050, while cropland displacement will affect 923 endangered species during the same period. The indirect impact on endangered species will be 1.10–1.11 times more than the direct impact. Policies and measures should be enacted to balance urban expansion, cropland displacement, and natural habitat conservation in the JSR.
Zhang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.