Multilevel drivers of smallholder farmers' coping strategies to climate variability: Insights from Assam, India

Farmers use short-term responses, called coping strategies, to address the immediate threats of climate change while maintaining their livelihoods. This study pursues two objectives: to identify the different coping strategies adopted by smallholder farmers, and to determine how factors at the micro, meso , and macro levels influence their coping decisions. We employ a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model as our empirical approach and adopt the Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) framework as our theoretical framework. Primary and secondary data are used for analysis. Primary data are collected through household surveys and focused group discussions (FGD) from smallholder farmers in three highly vulnerable districts of Assam, India. The data were gathered over a four-month period, from March to June 2023. Secondary data are obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The results reveal that among the individual-level factors, the severity of a climate extreme event has the highest influence on farmers' adoption decisions. The interaction effect between the severity of a climate extreme event and its livelihood impact negatively influences the adoption of coping strategies. Beyond this, labor shortage, a village-level factor, and average rainfall, a district-level factor, negatively affect farmers' adoption of coping strategies. Therefore, alongside post-flood government support, creating alternative non-farm employment opportunities can help ease labor shortages in the study area. Enhancing farmers' access to financial resources and ensuring they receive timely information on sustainable practices and reliable scientific weather forecasts will be vital in increasing the farmers' uptake of coping strategies. • Coping strategies are categorized into pre, peri and post contingency measures. • Multilevel logit is used to identify the drivers of coping strategies. • Female farmers are higher adopters than their male counterparts. • Climate event severity that impacts farmers' livelihood reduces adoption. • Average rainfall, a district level factor, reduces coping strategies by 55.8%.