ABSTRACT The 2024 presidential election unfolded under extraordinary circumstances—the mid‐campaign withdrawal of an incumbent president, the nomination of the first woman of color by a major party, and the reelection of a president defeated 4 years earlier. Yet the outcome revealed an electorate that looked much like 2016 and 2020. Drawing on ANES, CES, and exit poll data, we argue that the Trump era has produced a “stuck” electorate that is deeply polarized, highly nationalized, and resistant to change. Race remains the most durable cleavage, with Democrats reliant on African Americans and Republicans dependent on whites. Latinos and Asians shifted sharply toward the GOP, while gender, education, and income reinforced enduring divisions. Trump's enduring brand crystallized these alignments and nationalized electoral competition, reducing local distinctiveness and constraining opportunities for realignment. The Trump era, we conclude, is best understood not as a period of partisan transformation but one of consolidation, with important implications for 2028 and beyond.
Carson et al. (Sun,) studied this question.
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