What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to analyze climate extremes in northwest Ethiopia and their impacts on potato farming systems to inform adaptation strategies.

April 7, 2026Open Access

Observed and projected climate extremes in northwest highlands of Ethiopia and their implications in potato-based farming systems

Key Points

The study aims to analyze climate extremes in northwest Ethiopia and their impacts on potato farming systems to inform adaptation strategies.
Analyzed climate extremes in northwest Ethiopia's Lower Dega and Upper Dega agroecosystems.
Used the ENACTS dataset for historical climate data from 1989–2018.
Employed MIROC6 projections for climate scenarios from 2019–2078 under moderate and high emissions.
Calculated extreme rainfall and temperature indices using RClimDex2.0.
Evaluated significance of trends using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator.
Observed annual total wet day rainfall increased by 168 mm per decade in Lower Dega and 67 mm in Upper Dega.
Extreme rainfall events showed higher frequency in Upper Dega compared to Lower Dega.
Future projections indicate significant increases in total wet day rainfall (13.11–16.29%) and very heavy precipitation days (44.83–57.95%).
Temperatures are projected to rise, with increases up to 1.95 °C for warmest nights in Upper Dega under high emissions.

Abstract

Potato, a vital staple crop widely grown in the Ethiopian highlands, is sensitive to climate extremes. In this study, extreme rainfall and temperature trends were analyzed in northwest Ethiopia lower highland (Lower Dega) and upper highland (Upper Dega) agroecosystems (AESs) using Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) dataset for 1989–2018 and MIROC6 projections for near-term (2019–2048) and mid-century (2049–2078) period under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios to inform adaptation strategies. The extreme indices were computed using RClimDex2.0, while the significance of observed trends was evaluated using the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator in R. Relatively higher extreme rainfall events were observed in Upper Dega. Observed annual total wet day rainfall (PRCPTOT) increased by 168 and 67 mm per decade, while the highest maximum monthly consecutive five-day precipitation (RX5day) increased by 13.8 and 2.5 mm per decade in Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively. The projected PRCPTOT, extremely wet days (R99P), and number of very heavy precipitation days (R20) showed an increase in the range of 13.11–16.29%, 20.25–35.17%, and 44.83–57.95% across AESs, with the highest values anticipated in Upper Dega under SSP5-8.5 in mid-century. The highest rise in temperature extremes was projected for the warmest days (TXx) and warmest nights (TNx) with values of 1.74 and 1.77 °C and 1.65 and 1.95 °C in Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively, under SSP5-8.5 in mid-century. Future agronomic practices and variety improvement activities should consider these results for climate-resilient potato production in the northwest Ethiopia potato-growing areas.

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