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In follicular lymphoma (FL), progression of disease ≤24 months (POD24) has emerged as an important prognostic marker for overall survival (OS). We aimed to investigate survival more broadly by timing of progression and treatment in a national population-based setting. We identified 948 stage II-IV indolent FL patients in the Swedish Lymphoma Register diagnosed 2007-2014 who received first-line systemic therapy, followed through 2020. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by first POD at any time during follow-up using Cox regression. OS was predicted by POD using an illness-death model. During a median follow-up of 6.1 years (IQR: 3.5-8.4), 414 patients experienced POD (44%), of which 270 (65%) occurred ≤24 months. POD was represented by a transformation in 15% of cases. Compared to progression-free patients, POD increased all-cause mortality across treatments, but less so among patients treated with rituximab(R)-single (HR = 4.54, 95% CI: 2.76-7.47) than R-chemotherapy (HR = 8.17, 95% CI: 6.09-10.94). The effect of POD was similar following R-CHOP (HR = 8.97, 95% CI: 6.14-13.10) and BR (HR = 10.29, 95% CI: 5.60-18.91). The negative impact of POD on survival remained for progressions up to 5 years after R-chemotherapy, but was restricted to 2 years after R-single. After R-chemotherapy, the 5-year OS conditional on POD occurring at 12, 24, and 60 months was 34%, 46%, and 57% respectively, versus 78%, 82%, and 83% if progression-free. To conclude, POD before but also beyond 24 months is associated with worse survival, illustrating the need for individualized management for optimal care of FL patients.
Weibull et al. (Thu,) studied this question.