International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub‐Saharan Africa

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub‐Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub‐Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.