Impacts of climate change on drought and its consequences on the agricultural crop under worst-case scenario over the Godavari River Basin, India

Extreme dry and hot conditions lead to intense droughts in central India. However, the precise changes in future drought characteristics and their consequences on crop production have not been fully examined in Godavari River Basin. Therefore, this study focuses on the spatiotemporal modelling of climate change impacts on drought over the past, present, and future periods using long-term high spatial gridded data. The past and present observed datasets were obtained from Indian Meteorological Department, whereas the future datasets were obtained from d4PDF Scenarios. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied to analyse drought statistics to identify the worst-case drought scenario (i.e. year most affected by severe-to-extreme drought with high drought severity), which was used further to access precise drought risk. Because SPEI considers the effect of both rainfall and temperature and therefore it is the widely recommended meteorological drought indices and best suited for climate change impact assessment. Drought severity was analysed using a Multi-criteria assessment risk matrix, and the areas under higher agriculture drought risk were mapped. The frequency of droughts with higher intensity and magnitude increased in the present decade compared to the past three decades. 75% area showed higher vulnerability to drought risks, whereas only 25% showed lower risks and less vulnerability to drought occurrences. Results demonstrate that drought severity varies from one sub-basin to another. More drought episodes were predicted for the central belt, particularly over the sub-basins of Wardha, Wainganga, Pranitha, and part of Indravati and Lower Godavari. 11% of the area covering six districts in the GRB was identified as highly vulnerable, and rice production was drastically reduced, accounting for 41.02% of production loss during the worst-case drought event. The frequency of severe-to-extreme droughts is expected to increase under future scenarios; therefore, effective mitigation strategies are recommended to minimise the agriculture drought risks and economic loss.