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Abstract “World War One was inevitable.” What sense can we make of such claims? I use recent work in philosophy of science to define historical necessity in terms of causal sensitivity. This implies that it must be understood in a relativized way, and that it is a property of historical explanations rather than of history itself. I then explore how historical necessity relates to chance and determinism, how it relates to predictability, and how the concept can be used by historians, social scientists, and others.
Robert Northcott (Mon,) studied this question.