Data-Driven Stochastic Unit Commitment for Integrating Wind Generation

Considering recent development of deregulated energy markets and the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation, it is important for power system operators to ensure cost effectiveness while maintaining the system reliability. To achieve this goal, significant research progress has recently been made to develop stochastic optimization models and solution methods to improve reliability unit commitment run practice, which is used in the day-ahead market for ISOs/RTOs to ensure sufficient generation capacity available in real time to accommodate uncertainties. Most stochastic optimization approaches assume the renewable energy generation amounts follow certain distributions. However, in practice, the distributions are unknown and instead, a certain amount of historical data are available. In this research, we propose a data-driven risk-averse stochastic unit commitment model, where risk aversion stems from the worst-case probability distribution of the renewable energy generation amount, and develop the corresponding solution methods to solve the problem. Given a set of historical data, our proposed approach first constructs a confidence set for the distributions of the uncertain parameters using statistical inference and solves the corresponding risk-averse stochastic unit commitment problem. Then, we show that the conservativeness of the proposed stochastic program vanishes as the number of historical data increases to infinity. Finally, the computational results numerically show how the risk-averse stochastic unit commitment problem converges to the risk-neutral one, which indicates the value of data.