This addendum formally notes that the PIWA Coefficient as formulated in v1. 0 BETA is superseded as of approximately 20 April 2026. Three concurrent eventsinvalidate the clean proxy assumptions on which the model depends: (1) the arrival of the final Gulf Oil shipments sourced via Hormuz-adjacent supply chains, afterwhich PNZ91 ceases to function as an unfiltered seismograph of Strait of Hormuz throughput; (2) the NZ Government’s In-Work Tax Credit (IWTC) interventionintroducing a demand-side subsidy that partially masks the retail price signal; and (3) the shelving of the planned 12-cent fuel excise increase, removing an anticipatedupward shock from the domestic price series. Critically, the model’s core resolution threshold (τ = 3. 50 NZD/L) has already been breached as of mid-April 2026, placing the PIWA coefficient formally at or above 1. 0. The theory is therefore closed on its own terms: the predicted pain-equilibrium condition is confirmed. Futuremodelling will require recalibration against alternative-market supply chains (AU, SE Asia) rather than direct Gulf pricing transmission.
Nicolas Antony Brown (Wed,) studied this question.
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