Adoption and Diffusion of Organic Farming - Discussion paper

Abstract Organic farming is widely recognised as a key component of the transition to sustainable agriculture, contributing to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals. In line with these objectives, European policy frameworks call for a substantial expansion of agricultural land under organic management by 2030. Against this background, this study examines the diffusion and adoption of organic farming in two European Union (EU) Member States: the Czech Republic and Germany.Using official statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic and Germany’s Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity, the study analyses the diffusion of organic farming and projects the share of agricultural land under organic management in 2030 using the Bass diffusion model. To further examine adoption behaviour, the study investigates farm-level determinants of organic farming adoption using data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) database for the period 2008–2021. Adoption patterns are analysed using a probit model specified as a within–between random-effects (WBRE) panel data model, complemented by cross-sectional and pooled probit models. Together, these approaches provide a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of organic farming adoption based on observed farm behaviour.Despite ambitious national targets, projections based on the Bass diffusion model suggest that these targets are unlikely to be achieved in either country under current conditions. The results indicate that the Czech Republic and Germany are at different stages of the diffusion process, with innovation- and imitation-driven mechanisms playing distinct roles. While imitation effects are more pronounced in Germany, they remain limited in the Czech Republic.Financial support is more strongly associated with conversion to organic farming than price premiums in both countries. Consumer demand also plays a key role in the diffusion of organic farming, with market-related effects being stronger in Germany, reflecting its more developed organic market. Conversion is further associated with farmers’ pro-environmental orientations, as proxied by prior participation in agri-environment-climate measures and lower input intensity before conversion. Finally, organic farming adoption in both countries is negatively associated with economic size, production specialisation, and labour intensity, with the magnitude of these associations increasing over time, while being positively associated with location in mountainous and upland areas.Overall, the findings highlight substantial heterogeneity across diffusion stages, indicating that early and late adopters represent structurally distinct types of farms. This heterogeneity suggests that effective policy support should be stage-specific and combine differentiated supply-side and demand-side measures. For modellers, the study provides projections of organic farming diffusion based on land conversion, as well as an identification of monetary and non-monetary drivers of conversion and their effects on adoption likelihood. Further information can be acquired in deliverable 3.2. Citation Žáková Kroupová, Z., Cechura, L., & Rumánková, L. (2026). Adoption and Diffusion of Organic Farming - Discussion paper (Version v01). BrightSpace Horizon Europe project GA Nr. 101060075. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19641172----------------- Funding acknowledgement Funded by the European Union. Grant Agreement No. 101060075. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Legal notice This document was produced under the terms and conditions of Grant Agreement No. 101060075 for the European Commission. It does not necessary reflect the view of the European Union and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area. The European Commission is not liable for any consequence stemming from the reuse of this publication. © BrightSpace, 2026 The reuse of this document is authorised under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CCBY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the BrightSpace consortium, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders. Project information BrightSpace Horizon Europe project Grant Agreement No. 101060075 https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060075 CALL: Innovative governance, environmental observations and digital solutions in support of the Green Deal WORK PROGRAMME Topic ID: HORIZON-CL6-2021-GOVERNANCE-01-12 EU agriculture within a safe and just operating space and planetary boundaries BrightSpace Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NL Contact: brightspace.wser@wur.nl | Website: www.brightspace-project.eu Project duration: 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2027.