Ducks in a pond or Bluewater sharks? The future of the Chinese navy and implications for Africa

The Chinese navy People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has undergone tremendous growth over the last three decades and is now the world’s largest navy in terms of numbers. Consequently, it makes sense to ask what China’s intentions are, whether it intends to become a “ Bluewater ” power, and especially how this will affect maritime security outside the Indo-Pacific region. This article argues that the growth is impressive, but that PLAN still has serious shortcomings in technology and capacities. However, the article argues that China is not pursuing this from only one angle and instead feels that its needs are better served by a multifaceted approach that integrates civilian, commercial, and military growth simultaneously. It is also the same complexity that makes China a more difficult contender to read on the international stage, since it is relying heavily on dual-purpose facilities and policies. China is therefore likely to be on the trajectory of becoming a strong and dominant regional power, but a small Bluewater shark. Albeit one that is likely to make a significant impact on African countries with a mix of economic and military means, especially through increased trade and investments, as well as increased military presence.