From Operations to Design: Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting for Risk-Aware Storage Sizing in Wind-Dominated Power Systems

The large-scale integration of wind energy introduces increased uncertainty and variability in modern power systems, with direct implications for both system design and operation. In addressing similar aspects, energy storage plays a pivotal role as a key source of system flexibility. However, the design and sizing of storage systems remain challenging, especially under conditions of increased uncertainty. In this context, the present study proposes an alternative methodological framework, based on an inverse sizing pathway, i.e., from operations to design. More specifically, the uncertainty embedded in day-ahead forecasting of residual errors, associated with wind power generation and load demand, is currently exploited as a design-relevant signal, while energy storage is treated explicitly as a risk-hedging mechanism. Forecasting residuals spanning a year of operation are incorporated in the problem through probabilistic modeling, leading to the generation of trajectories that correspond to different risk levels and are managed as design scenarios. Regarding the modeling of uncertainties, the study examines two different strategies, namely a global modeling approach and a k-means clustering strategy. Accordingly, by mapping the interplay between storage capacity, uncertainty levels (or risk tolerance), achieved RES shares and system-level costs, we highlight the role of energy storage as a risk-hedging entity rather than merely a means of energy balancing. Our results to that end demonstrate that the achieved shares of RES exhibit increased sensitivity, even within constrained regions of wind power variation, while storage capacity features distinct zones of hedging value and hedging saturation effects emerging beyond certain storage levels. Moreover, evaluation of the two modeling strategies reflects on their complementary character, with the global modeling approach ensuring continuity and the clustering strategy capturing local asymmetries within different operational regimes. In conclusion, the methodology presented in this study bridges the gap between operational forecasting and long-term system design, offering a risk-aware framework for storage sizing, grounded in actual operational signals rather than relying on stationary historical data and relevant scenarios.