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This paper seeks to explain why China historically exhibited restraint in expansion through a cognitive political economy lens.

April 27, 2026Open Access

When Will China Expand? A Theory of Expansion Inhibition Based on Cognitive Political Economy

Key Points

This paper seeks to explain why China historically exhibited restraint in expansion through a cognitive political economy lens.
Utilized Qing fiscal records and the context of Japan’s Meiji Restoration as natural experiments.
Developed a framework linking ideographic writing to political strategy and expansion restraint.
Demonstrated that ideographic systems increase assimilation costs, hindering expansion efforts.
Identified intergenerational reputational constraints as a significant factor in maintaining strategic restraint.

Abstract

Conventional international relations theory assumes power transition sparks hegemonic conflict. This paper introduces a cognitive political economy framework linking ideographic writing to expansion restraint. Using Qing fiscal records and Japan’s Meiji Restoration as natural experiments, we show ideographic systems create prohibitive assimilation costs and intergenerational reputational constraints that inhibit expansion. This challenges universal models of great power rivalry and offers a structurally grounded explanation for China’s historical strategic restraint, with broad implications for cross-civilizational strategic analysis

When Will China Expand? A Theory of Expansion Inhibition Based on Cognitive Political Economy

Key Points

Abstract

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