Energy security is defined as the uninterrupted and affordable availability of energy and is considered a vital component of economic, social, and environmental development. However, the significant share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption exposes societies to supply disruptions and economic risks. To mitigate these risks, diversification of energy sources and supply routes is essential. While various indices have been developed in the literature to measure energy supply security, these indices often fall short of comprehensively assessing energy supply risks. This study introduces a new energy supply security index aimed at overcoming these limitations by incorporating domestic consumption and import dependency into the evaluation. The proposed Energy Supply Risk Index (ESRI) is developed using adjusted Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) that accounts for energy import intensity and weights the share of each energy source in total consumption. The study demonstrates the application of ESRI through the case of Türkiye and analyzes the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The findings reveal the complex nature of risks associated with different levels of energy dependency and underscore the importance of transitioning to diversified and sustainable energy systems. By offering a more realistic measurement of energy supply risks, the ESRI provides policymakers with a robust tool for energy planning and risk management.
KARADAŞ et al. (Tue,) studied this question.