The SAPS II, MPM0 II, and LODS scoring systems demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality, with AUCs of 0.72, 0.69, and 0.60, respectively.
Observational (n=91)
No
Do SAPS II, MPM0 II, and LODS scores accurately predict in-hospital mortality in critically ill emergency department patients with shock?
Previously validated intensive care unit scoring systems (SAPS II, MPM0 II, LODS) demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality when using variables available in the emergency department.
Effect estimate: AUC 0.72 (SAPS II) (95% CI 0.57-0.87)
OBJECTIVES: New Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Morbidity Probability Model at admission (MPM0 II), and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) have all demonstrated high accuracy for predicting mortality in intensive care unit populations. We tested the prognostic accuracy of these instruments for predicting mortality among a cohort of critically ill emergency department patients. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Urban, tertiary emergency department, census >100,000. PATIENTS: Nontrauma emergency department patients admitted to an intensive care unit, aged >17 yrs, with initial emergency department vital signs consistent with shock (systolic blood pressure 1.0), and with agreement of two independent observers for at least one sign and symptom of inadequate tissue perfusion. INTERVENTIONS: Emergency department variables needed for calculation of each scoring system were prospectively collected, and published formulas were used to calculate the probability of in-hospital death for each scoring system. The main outcome was actual in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive ability of each scoring system. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Ninety-one of 202 patients (45%) were included. The mean age was 56 +/- 16 yrs, 42% were female, the mean initial systolic blood pressure was 84 +/- 13 mm Hg, and the average length of stay in the emergency department was 4.2 +/- 2.0 hrs. The in-hospital mortality rate was 21%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for calculated probability of in-hospital mortality for SAPS II was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.87), for MPM0 II 0.69 (95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.84), and for LODS 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Using variables available in the emergency department, three previously validated intensive care unit scoring systems demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality.
Jones et al. (Sun,) conducted a observational in Critically ill emergency department patients with shock (n=91). SAPS II, MPM0 II, and LODS scoring systems was evaluated on In-hospital mortality (AUC 0.72 (SAPS II), 95% CI 0.57-0.87). The SAPS II, MPM0 II, and LODS scoring systems demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality, with AUCs of 0.72, 0.69, and 0.60, respectively.