Emerging scientific evidence and strategic stakeholders: lessons from the glyphosate discourse

ABSTRACT This article examines how various stakeholders have engaged with emerging scientific findings that challenge established assumptions about the sources of glyphosate in European surface waters. We focus on two scientific publications which suggest that municipal wastewater, rather than agricultural runoff, may be the primary source of glyphosate in European rivers, with common laundry detergents hypothesised as a likely contributor through the transformation of aminopolyphosphonates during wastewater treatment. We argue that reliance on emerging scientific evidence represents a high-risk, high-gain scenario for stakeholders: those who engage early may gain a first-mover advantage in agenda-setting, but they risk losing credibility if the findings are subsequently disconfirmed. Drawing on a dedicated analytical framework, we analyse how different actors strategically responded to this emerging evidence. Agricultural actors were among the earliest and most active engagers, given the potential of the findings to partially exculpate the sector. Actors whose interests would be negatively affected by a reorientation of glyphosate policy responded differently: they challenged the findings while public attention was rising and largely withdrew as interest declined.