Resilient by nature or technology? How Industry 4.0 enhances Supply Chain Resilience until 2035

Purpose Global events revealed the vulnerability of global supply chain (SCs) and triggered the debate about how to improve supply chain resilience (SCRES). Industry 4.0 (I4.0) provides promising opportunities. However, there is still great uncertainty about its future implementation. Hence, this study aims to identify the potential of integrating I4.0 technologies to improve SCRES. Design/methodology/approach Based on current literature and grounded in the organizational information processing theory as a theoretical lens, 12 future-oriented projections on the implication of I4.0 on supply chain risk management (SCRM) were developed. A two-round Delphi study among 49 SC management experts from industry, academia and professional service companies was conducted to assess and discuss the projections regarding their expected probability of occurrence in 2035, their impact on SCRES and their desirability. A fuzzy c-means algorithm was applied to cluster the projections based on expert assessments. Findings Based on the experts’ assessments, three clusters of I4.0 influence on SCRES were identified. First, the study suggests that in 2035, companies will have integrated an SCRM perspective into their strategic decision-making and their daily operations. Second, companies strive for collaborative SCRM, based on I4.0-enhanced risk information sharing, but struggle with full implementation until 2035. Third, I4.0 technologies will support, but not replace, SC risk managers in making risk-related decisions in 2035. Originality/value Thus, this study addresses the necessity for future-oriented empirical research on I4.0-enhanced SCRM and analyzes how SCRES can be improved through the combination of cultural, personnel and strategic factors supported by I4.0 technologies in the long term.