What question did this study set out to answer?

The central aim is to explore whether services-led growth can effectively replace manufacturing in driving structural transformation and job creation in South Africa.

May 21, 2026Open Access

Services-led growth in the context of de-industrialization: Opportunities for structural transformation and job creation in South Africa

Key Points

The central aim is to explore whether services-led growth can effectively replace manufacturing in driving structural transformation and job creation in South Africa.
Analyzed unemployment trends and manufacturing decline in South Africa.
Identified potential services subsectors for productivity and employment opportunities.
Examined economic implications of shifting from manufacturing to service-oriented growth.
Unemployment rate expected to reach 32.0 percent by 2024, highlighting the urgency of transformation.
Identified specific services subsectors that could deliver significant productivity gains and job creation.
The shift from manufacturing to services presents both challenges and opportunities for economic growth.

Abstract

South Africa’s persistent unemployment crisis, with the unemployment rate reaching 32.0 percent in 2024, has intensified debates about viable pathways for structural transformation, following the sustained decline of the manufacturing sector. This paper investigates whether services-led growth can replace the role of manufacturing and identifies which services subsectors hold the greatest potential for productivity enhancement and employment creation.

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