Preoperative Prediction of Postoperative Infections Using Machine Learning and Electronic Health Record Data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate preoperative risk of postoperative infections using structured electronic health record (EHR) data. BACKGROUND: Surveillance and reporting of postoperative infections is primarily done through costly, labor-intensive manual chart reviews on a small sample of patients. Automated methods using statistical models applied to postoperative EHR data have shown promise to augment manual review as they can cover all operations in a timely manner. However, there are no specific models for risk-adjusting infectious complication rates using EHR data. METHODS: Preoperative EHR data from 30,639 patients (2013-2019) were linked to the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program preoperative data and postoperative infection outcomes data from 5 hospitals in the University of Colorado Health System. EHR data included diagnoses, procedures, operative variables, patient characteristics, and medications. Lasso and the knockoff filter were used to perform controlled variable selection. Outcomes included surgical site infection, urinary tract infection, sepsis/septic shock, and pneumonia up to 30 days postoperatively. RESULTS: Among >15,000 candidate predictors, 7 were chosen for the surgical site infection model and 6 for each of the urinary tract infection, sepsis, and pneumonia models. Important variables included preoperative presence of the specific outcome, wound classification, comorbidities, and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each model ranged from 0.73 to 0.89. CONCLUSIONS: Parsimonious preoperative models for predicting postoperative infection risk using EHR data were developed and showed comparable performance to existing American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk models that use manual chart review. These models can be used to estimate risk-adjusted postoperative infection rates applied to large volumes of EHR data in a timely manner.