Working memory assessments at school entry as longitudinal predictors of National Curriculum attainment levels

Abstract A longitudinal study of 54 children aged between 4 and 7 years of age investigated whether measures of working memory skills taken shortly after school entry served as useful predictors of children’s attainment levels in National Curriculum assessments at Key Stage 1. Early working memory scores were found to be highly significant predictors of children’s subsequent levels of attainment in literacy, but not in mathematics. Compared with the local education authority baseline assessments also administered at 4 years of age that are designed in large part to predict later attainments, working memory scores accounted for unique variance in children’s spelling and writing scores at 7 years. These findings point to the utility of combining knowledge-based assessments with measures of fluid cognitive ability in order to obtain the best estimates of a child’s chances of future academic success.