Elite division and voter confusion: Australia's republic referendum in 1999

Abstract Although a majority of Australian voters favour the introduction of a republic, in the November 1999 referendum a majority of them nevertheless voted to retain the monarchy. This article explains the background to this apparently perverse outcome. The central problem was asking the Australian electorate to make a complex, technical choice about the system of government, in the absence of clear partisan cues. As a result, republicans were divided on the method of election for the head of state, effectively resulting in three separate groups of voters favouring change. Using survey data collected just after the referendum, four hypotheses are tested to explain the result. The most important influence on voting was views about whether or not to sever the link with Britain, followed by the positive and negative aspects of the proposed change, and the cues presented by the leaders of the respective YES and NO campaigns. The interaction between these factors enabled political elites opposed to change to manipulate the result in their favour.