Democratic Transition and Breakdown in Western Europe, 1870-1939: A Test of the Moore Thesis

Barrington Moore's Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy is widely regarded as a contemporary classic, yet there have been few attempts to evaluate the validity of his argument on a large number of comparable cases. This article makes such an attempt with all Western European countries experiencing democratic rule between 1870 and 1939. It seeks (1) to explain what structural and historical features distinguish the breakdown cases from those that remained democratic, and (2) to trace the process of class coalition formation in the transition to democracy and the subsequent breakdown. Moore's thesis does fit, with some modification. All four breakdwn cases were characterized historically by an authoritarian coalition of labor-repressive landlords, the state, and the bourgeoisie that contributed to the breakdown of democratic rule in the 1920s and 1930s. In contrast, in none of the democratic survivors did such a coalition materialize. This difference can be traced largely to the strenght of the agrarian elite in the late 19th century. However, in contrast to Moore's characterization of the conservative authoritarian path, the ruling coalition, except in Germany, did not play a modernizing role, and only in Austria can the bourgeoisie be described as a "dependent" partner in the coalition. Moreover, because it stops too early, Moore's analysis greatly underplays the role of the organized working class in the transition to democracy and attributes far too positive a role to the bourgeoisie.