Transition in second birth intention in a low fertility context: the case of Jiangsu, China

When China’s decades-long one-child policy was replaced by a two-child policy, the circumstances under which women intend to have a second child become of great concern. This study examines the determinants of women’s second birth intention, as well as how the intention changes over time alongside changes in other life circumstances. Using panel data from the Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Study (JFIBS, 2007, 2010), we find that women with more economic and familial/social resources are more likely to want a second child, while women who work in non-agriculture sectors and have higher decision-making power in the family are less inclined to have a second child. We also find that a sizeable increase of family income encourages women to upwardly revise their intention towards a desire for two children. The role of policy change on Chinese women’s second birth intention is also discussed.