Myopia progression risk assessment score (MPRAS): a promising new tool for risk stratification

Timely identification of individuals "at-risk" for myopia progression is the leading requisite for myopia practice as it aids in the decision of appropriate management. This study aimed to develop 'myopia progression risk assessment score' (MPRAS) based on multiple risk factors (10) to determine whether a myope is "at-risk" or "low-risk" for myopia progression. Two risk-score models (model-1: non-weightage, model-2: weightage) were developed. Ability of MPRAS to diagnose individual "at-risk" for myopia progression was compared against decision of five clinicians in 149 myopes, aged 6-29 years. Using model-1 (no-weightage), further 7 sub-models were created with varying number of risk factors in decreasing step-wise manner (1a: 10 factors to 1g: 4 factors). In random eye analysis for model-1, the highest Youden's J-index (0.63-0.65) led to the MPRAS cut-off score of 41.50-43.50 for 5 clinicians with a sensitivity ranging from 78 to 85% and specificity ranging from 79 to 87%. For this cut-off score, the mean area under the curve (AUC) between clinicians and the MPRAS model ranged from 0.89 to 0.90. Model-2 (weighted for few risk-factors) provided similar sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. Sub-model analysis revealed greater AUC with high sensitivity (89%) and specificity (94%) in model-1g that has 4 risk factors compared to other sub-models (1a-1f). All the MPRAS models showed good agreement with the clinician's decision in identifying individuals "at-risk" for myopia progression.