Predictability, Constancy, and Contingency of Periodic Phenomena

Temporal patterns in fluctuating physical and biological phenomena are of great interest in several fields of biology, primarily because of their importance as evolutionary constraints. To clarify and simplify the wide variety of terms used to describe aspects of temporal pattern, simple measures of predictability, constancy, and contingency are proposed. These are sufficient to describe the general characteristics of periodic phenomena. The measures are based on the mathematics of information theory. Methods of testing the statistical significance of these measures are given. Predictability, constancy, and contingency can be determined for either qualitative (categorical) or quantitative (discrete or continuous) variables measured over a period of time. Alternative patterns of seasonal flowering and fruiting of tropical trees are given as an example of a qualitative variable; precipitation data are analyzed as an example of a quantitative variable.