The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method

The pattern of international agricultural trade is undergoing profound changes. The influence of country risks on the international agricultural trade pattern is prominent. In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the international agricultural trade patterns and explore the influence of country risks on them. Specifically, we first construct an international agricultural trade network (IATN) based on complex network theory. Second, we analyze each country’s diversity of import sources and the position of countries in the IATN using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and network indicators, such as in-degree, out-degree, weighted in-degree, weighted out-degree, and betweenness centrality. Third, this paper explores the influence of different types of country risks, including economic risk and political risk, on international agricultural trade patterns using the panel regression method. The results show that countries played different roles and occupied different positions in the international agricultural trade pattern; notably, the United States occupied a core position, while Japan and Mexico had insufficient diversity in import sources. Moreover, based on the panel regression method, we find that political risks have a positive impact on the agricultural trade pattern, while an unstable economic environment could inhibit the agricultural trade pattern in various countries. This study could provide references for countries to implement agricultural trade policies regarding country risks to ensure stable agricultural trade relations and national food security.