To quantify the influence of shrinkage and creep randomness on the long-term deformation and closure pushing force of ultra-high pier continuous rigid-frame bridges, this study proposes a probabilistic analysis framework. Based on the CEB-FIP (1990) model, seven random factors were introduced to account for model and parameter uncertainties. The Response Surface Method (RSM) was employed to establish an explicit relationship between structural responses and random variables, followed by Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic analysis, using the Lugou River Grand Bridge as a case study. Results show that the quadratic response surface fits the finite element results accurately (R2 > 0.9). The probability distribution of pier-top displacement approximately follows a log-normal distribution, while mid-span deflection and pier-base moment are approximately normally distributed. The pushing force when considering randomness is 1.16 times the deterministic value, a difference that cannot be ignored. The proposed method provides a probabilistic basis for determining the pushing force, overcoming the limitations of traditional deterministic analysis.
Jiang et al. (Mon,) studied this question.