North atlantic oscillatiodannular mode: Two paradigms—one phenomenon

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as defined in the studies of Sir Gilbert Walker ca . 1930, and the zonal‐index cycle, as elaborated by investigators at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology some twenty years later, are different interpretations of the same entity, whose time variations are well represented by the leading principal component of the northern hemisphere sea‐level pressure field. The NAO paradigm envisions this phenomenon as involving a unique teleconnection pattern in the Atlantic sector that varies on interannual and longer time‐scales in association with large‐scale atmosphere‐ocean interaction. In contrast, the zonal‐index‐cycle paradigm posits the existence of independent, fundamentally zonally symmetric (or ‘annular’) modes of variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, both of which fluctuate on intraseasonal as well as interannual time‐scales. Spontaneous interactions between the zonally symmetric flow and the eddies are viewed as being largely responsible for the variability of the annular modes at the higher frequencies, and a variety of different mechanisms including, but by no means limited to, atmosphere‐ocean interaction are viewed as potentially capable of forcing them at the lower frequencies. The NAO and ‘annular mode’ paradigms offer contradictory interpretations of the causal linkages that are responsible for the observed correlations between North Atlantic climate variability and variations in a diverse array of zonally averaged quantities. They suggest different research agendas and they evoke quite different images in the popular press. It is argued that the two paradigms cannot be equally valid and that it is in the interests of the community to come to a consensus as to which of them is more appropriate. Rules of evidence are proposed as a basis for making that decision.