Trends in Overall and Menthol Market Shares of Leading Cigarette Brands in the USA: 2014–2019

Many factors can shift cigarette brand preference, and surveillance is an important tactic to inform regulatory strategy. The objective of this study was to identify shifts in top brands' overall and menthol market share from 2014 to 2019. We used data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health public use datasets, which are a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of people aged 12+ in the USA. In our analysis of top brands, we accounted for consumption patterns and computed the percent change in market share for each brand. We observed that overall market share declined for nearly all brands, though top moderately priced brands gained share. Half of the top brands with menthol styles grew in menthol market share. We observed three primary shifts in the cigarette market: brands that gained the most menthol market share were brands with both menthol and non-menthol in their product lineups; menthol contributed substantially to discount brands' market share increases; the two premium brands that employed "natural" descriptors experienced increased market share. Research should continue to focus on trends that influence cigarette market share, as the cigarette market in the USA is likely to look very different in five years than it does today.