Transnational terrorism: Prospectus for a causal modeling approach

Abstract There has been an avalanche of published and unpublished analyses of the phenomenon of terrorism. There have been few explicit attempts, however, to determine empirically the more systematic precursors or causes and measurable effects of terrorist phenomena. The voluminous literature on terrorism can be subdivided into general works, definitional/conceptual discussions, case studies of particular regions, countries, and/or movements, counterterrorism and crisis management, and terrorist event data. Following a review of the research literature, models of transnational terrorism are delineated. An analytical strategy is also specified; the strategy entails the application of “soft modeling” techniques. A very basic causal model of transnational terrorism is sketched out. The ultimate goal of a causal modeling research program would be to mesh the substance of terrorism research with the social science methodology of causal modeling—simultaneously drawing on the strengths of both while recognizing the weaknesses of each.