Purpose This study examines the early career trajectories of vocational high school graduates and identifies the factors shaping their transition from school to the workforce. Specifically, it aims to classify post-graduation employment patterns and assess demographic disparities influencing career outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Using longitudinal data covering a 36-month period after graduation, the study applies group-based multi-trajectory modeling (GBMTM) to identify distinct patterns of job status and wage progression among vocational high school graduates. Four trajectory groups are identified: long-term unemployed, gradual income entrants, early leavers, and stably employed. Multinomial regression analyses are then conducted to examine how demographic factors – including gender, region, and family background – predict membership in each trajectory group. Findings The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in early career trajectories among vocational high school graduates. The four identified groups exhibit markedly different patterns of employment stability and income growth. Demographic disparities play a significant role in shaping these trajectories: male graduates face distinctive employment challenges, regional differences are associated with unequal labour-market opportunities, and higher levels of family satisfaction are linked to more favorable career outcomes. These findings underscore persistent inequalities in the school-to-work transition process. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by applying GBMTM to vocational education research, capturing the dynamic interplay between employment status and wage progression over time. By simultaneously examining career trajectories and demographic inequalities, the study offers nuanced evidence to inform targeted interventions, policy reforms, and improvements in vocational education programs aimed at facilitating smoother transitions into the workforce.
Ryu et al. (Mon,) studied this question.