Socioeconomic Drivers of Population Change in Poland: A Spatial Municipal Perspective

ABSTRACT Poland's demography is changing rapidly as a result of population decline and ageing, and uneven migration flows. Nevertheless, the role of local socioeconomic conditions as factors shaping these processes remains insufficiently understood. This study analyses the determinants of population change in 2477 Polish municipalities between 2011 and 2024. Using spatial panel regression models and non‐spatial fixed‐effects models, we seek to identify how labour market conditions, entrepreneurial activity, public investment, local amenities, and natural environment characteristics relate to municipal population growth or decline, and whether these factors differ between metropolitan cores, suburban areas, and municipalities outside the functional urban areas. We demonstrate that population change is strongly path‐dependent and spatially clustered: ageing, unemployment, and peripheral land‐use patterns reinforce the regional pockets of demographic decline, while investment activity and suburban expansion generate positive spillovers that extend beyond municipal borders. New industrial entities support population growth only in the functional urban areas, whereas extensive forest cover and municipal remoteness lead to population declines. Education and service‐related amenities are the most important drivers of population change in rural and suburban contexts. Overall, our findings indicate that policies addressing depopulation and demographic resilience in Central and Eastern Europe should be spatially differentiated and sensitive to the functions that municipalities have within wider urban systems.