How Evil? Deconstructing the New Russia–China–Iran–North Korea Axis

Washington is entertaining the idea that America and its allies face a new ‘axis of evil’ consisting of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Voices across the political spectrum want to make this grouping the focus of Western statecraft. But cooperation among these adversaries is modest overall, and treating them as a coherent bloc ignores important uncertainties about their future bonds. In the process, it risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Their growing bond may be an unanticipated geopolitical cost of the Russia–Ukraine war, but their cooperation will probably diminish when the war ends. The United States should focus on finding levers to weaken China’s relationships with the other three – especially Russia – and in the meantime better prioritise its global commitments so that it is less exposed to coordinated attacks.