The Transformation of Turkistan into an Area of Competition between the European Union and Türkiye through the Cyprus Issue

This study comprehensively examines how Turkistan has transformed into an arena of diplomatic competition between the European Union (EU) and Türkiye over the Cyprus issue. Türkiye's shift toward a two-state solution in its Cyprus policy and the admission of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as an observer member to the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) are regarded as key drivers mobilizing regional geopolitical balances. To decode this complex, multi-actor process, the research conducts a content analysis of OTS summit declarations and utilizes the process tracing method to examine the Turkic States' relations with the EU, Türkiye, and the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA), as well as the EU's Turkistan policy. Findings of the study reveal that, unlike in Türkiye, the Cyprus issue is not a historical “national cause” or a priority security concern for the Turkistan states. Their foreign policy priorities are built upon preserving political sovereignty, maintaining a balancing policy against Russian influence, and pursuing economic-technological development goals. Defined as an independent variable, the EU’s regional economic power and its updated 2019 Central Asia strategy play a decisive role in the Turkistan states' approach to Cyprus. In particular, the decisions by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to develop diplomatic relations with the GCA, appoint ambassadors, and increase official contacts are evaluated as concrete reflections of the competition between Türkiye and the EU.