This study develops a systematic framework for assessing the temporal dynamics of tropical cyclone (TC) risk in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2013 to 2023. A unified composite index was constructed by integrating hazard, vulnerability, and mitigation capacity, allowing for the quantification of the interannual evolution of TC risk. The analysis showed that maximum storm surge and extreme precipitation drove hazard variability, with distinct peaks during the super typhoons of 2017 and 2018. In the vulnerability dimension, GDP and population density together accounted for over 50% of the total weight, and the vulnerability index shows an upward trend, though its growth slowed in 2020. Mitigation capacity improved steadily, accelerating after 2020 and partly offsetting the risk pressure from growing vulnerability. The risk index broadly mirrored the hazard index, peaking in 2018. Notably, in the two TC-free years (2014 and 2019), the risk index was higher in 2019 than in 2014, reflecting an increased vulnerability-to-mitigation ratio over the intervening period. A coherence check against three disaster loss indicators (2018–2023) yielded a correlation of r = 0.8, indicating broad consistency in the interannual patterns of the risk index and observed losses. This study provides a temporally explicit baseline for understanding recent TC risk dynamics and offers methodological support for resilience planning in coastal megaregions facing climate-related hazards.
Zheng et al. (Tue,) studied this question.