The Speed of Shared Autonomous Vehicles Is Critical to Their Demand Potential

Under a 2021 amendment to German law, the KelRide project became the first public on-demand service operating electric autonomous vehicles (AVs) without fixed routes on public roads. This paper addresses two notable gaps in the literature by (1) conducting an ex post evaluation of demand predictions for a non-infrastructure (Mobility-on-Demand (MoD)) project and (2) using real-world data to analyze how demand responds to key Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD) system parameters in a rural context. Earlier simulation-based demand forecasts are compared to observed booking data, and the recalibrated model is used to investigate the sensitivity of passenger numbers to vehicle speed, fleet size, service area, operating hours, and idle vehicle positioning. Results show that increasing vehicle speed leads to a superlinear rise in passenger numbers—especially at small fleet sizes—while demand saturates at large fleet sizes. A linear increase in demand is observed with expanding service areas, provided fleet size is sufficient. Extending operating hours from 9 a.m.–4 p.m. to full-day service increases demand by a factor of two to four. Passengers numbers also vary notably depending on the positioning of idle vehicles. Consistent with empirical findings, the analysis underscores that raising AV speed is essential for ensuring the long-term viability of autonomous mobility services.