Surprisingly little literature exists on how cash transfer (CT) programmes affect climate preparedness, despite the severity of the ongoing climate crisis and the overlap in objectives between social protection and climate policy. In this sense, if social protection programmes aim to achieve transformative, long-term reductions in poverty and vulnerability, such goal cannot be realized without empowering recipients to better tackle climate hazards. CTs can, for instance, improve climate adaptation by positively influencing several dimensions of resilience, such as the economic, ecological, institutional and – crucially – the social component, which is postulated to play a key mediating role. This paper analyzed, through quasi-experimental difference-in-differences, the midline effects of a (universal) unconditional CT conducted in rural Uganda, on climate resilience, adaptation to climate change, and collective-level outcomes – operationalized as social capital, agency and collective action. The main finding was that the programme was statistically associated with greater adoption of (both preventive and absorptive) coping mechanisms against shocks. Interestingly, not only were 'beneficial' strategies (such as savings and credit) increasingly employed, but there was also a rise in 'mal-adaptation' practices – like selling productive assets and withdrawing children from school. Causal Mediation Analysis further suggested that the increasing utilization of beneficial mechanisms may have been influenced by CT-led improvements in collective-level outcomes, whereas the latter did not significantly influence changes in the usage of adverse strategies.
Grisolia et al. (Mon,) studied this question.