The modern stage of development of society is characterized by the emergence and development of various types of conflicts as a way of interaction of various levels of socio-economic organizations for the possession (use) of resources in the sphere of their interests. Their management in order to reduce the destructive nature of their impact is based on the strategies of prevention, regulation, force suppression and resolution, the application of which is carried out at various stages of the conflict. At present, conflict management methods are based on a descriptive (empirical) approach based on logical and heuristic methods of decision-making and, mainly, on private criteria of efficiency without solving this problem as a whole on a quantitative basis. This leads to various negative consequences, the conflict does not cease, but moves to a higher social level of tension, which necessitates the use of principles and methods of system analysis to justify, on the basis of quantitative criteria of the effectiveness of the management decision by decision makers (DM). Objective – the systemic substantiation of the decision-maker's management strategy for managing a dynamic conflict is carried out with the aim of studying the conflict of socio-economic organizations that represent organizational and technical systems (OTS) according to system-defining features in order to identify defining identification features (conflict properties) at the external and internal system levels, to form the composition and structure of the management strategy, to analyze the conflict interaction of the OTS and to establish the isomorphism of their relationships – the basis for the methodological substantiation of the criterion for the effectiveness of the management strategy and to develop a problem statement. The synthesis of the decision-making system is carried out at the external and internal system levels of conflict management using the system-defining principles of the systems approach in accordance with the technological scheme of cyclic conflict research at the stages of decomposition, analysis and synthesis. The justification of the decision-making system effectiveness criterion is based on the principles of integrity and uniqueness and is formally reflected by the isomorphism of the decision-making system elements and the set of conflict elements, that is, the solution completely and unambiguously corresponds to the decision-maker's goal of conflict management and the set of elements (properties) of the conflict. In terms of content, the criterion is represented by the probability of making a decision on conflict management: settlement (initial stage); forceful suppression (current stage) and resolution (final stage). The basis of conflict management is determining the gain of each of the conflicting STSs, characterizing the conflict stability of their states – an acceptable value of the gain of the parties, sufficient to terminate the conflict. At the same time, it is proposed to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of the decision-making system by the value of the conflict stability coefficient, which characterizes the state of each of the conflicting parties at the considered stage of the conflict. The formulation of the solution to the problem is based on the iterative process of ensuring the isomorphism of a set of elements of the decision-making system and the conflict based on determining the maximum value of the probability of ending the conflict based on the condition of achieving an acceptable value of the conflict stability of the state of each of the conflicting OTS. The application of the proposed approach ensures the formalization of the process of developing the UR and the choice of the decision maker on a quantitative basis of the preferred conflict management strategy.
Л. Е. Мистров (Wed,) studied this question.