Declining population trajectories: Russia and Her Uralic Minorities

In the early 1990s, Russia’s population entered a period of negative growth. Since then the number of deaths has almost uninterruptedly exceeded the number of births and net migration has mostly not been large enough to compensate for the natural decrease (excess of deaths over births). Taken together, the Uralic peoples form a nearly two-million-strong and internally heterogeneous fraction of the country’s population. Beginning from the first post-World War II census conducted in 1959, this paper examines the population dynamics of the Uralic minorities in the context of the development of the whole country, ethnic Russians, and Tatars. Compared with these reference groups, the post-Soviet intercensal periods show multiple decline rates for most Uralic groups. In contrast to the overall picture, a number of groups included in the category of the indigenous peoples of the North have demonstrated rapid growth. Population changes are discussed in the light of fragments of information available on fertility, mortality, and assimilation. Particular emphasis is devoted to the factor of assimilation and estimates of its magnitude are presented.