Functional high-risk (FHR) multiple myeloma (MM) is defined as an unexpected, early relapse (ER) of disease in the absence of baseline molecular or clinical risk factors (RF), making FHR MM inherently dependent on which RFs were assessed at diagnosis, but also on what treatment patients received. To establish the true incidence of FHR, we analysed uniformly treated, transplant-eligible (TE) patients from the UK NCRI Myeloma-XI trial that had been profiled for IMS/IMWG defined high-risk cytogenetic aberrations (HRCA) and the SKY92 gene expression HR signature (GEP-HR). 135 TE MyXI patients meeting these criteria were studied, with a median follow-up of 88 months. 25 patients (18.5%) experienced ER, defined as relapse 18 months from maintenance randomization post-autologous stem-cell transplantation. Hereof, 15 (60%) were classified as IMS/IMWG-HR at diagnosis, of whom 8 were also GEP-HR. Another 6 patients were GEP-HR only and would have been missed by IMS/IMWG-HR. Among 4 patients with both IMS/IMWG- 1.5% of all) truly meeting all FHR criteria. The combination of IMS/IMWG-HR and GEP-HR profiling identified 84% of ER, and differentiated long-term outcome across all 135 patients: co-occurring IMS/IMWG-HR and GEP-HR was associated with very short overall survival compared to the absence of both (HR=13.1, 95%-CI: 6.5-26.1, P0.0001), followed by GEP-HR only (HR=5.1, 95%-CI: 2.4-11.1, P0.0001) and IMS/IMWG-HR only (HR=3.2, 95%-CI: 1.6-6.2, P=0.0007). Our results support more comprehensive baseline diagnostic profiling to identify those at risk of ER upfront. ISRCTN49407852, NCT01554852
Beer et al. (Wed,) studied this question.