September 16, 2025

Analysis of the Strategic Game in Sino-US Rare Earth Trade Conflicts and Cooperation: The Complexity of Great Power Competition and Interdependence

Key Points

Sino-US rare earth trade conflicts illustrate the complexities of great power competition amidst interdependence.
China controls 60% of rare earth mining and 88% of smelting, leveraging its dominant industrial chain in this rivalry.
The US’s reliance on Chinese rare earths, accounting for 90% of consumption, has prompted efforts to rebuild domestic industries.
Trade coercion strategies initiated by the Trump administration are intensifying tensions in the rare earth sector.

Abstract

This study focuses on Sino-US rare earth trade, exploring its role as a core issue in the two powers’ strategic competition amid great power rivalry and global supply chain interdependence. Against the backdrop, China, with a dominant global position via its complete rare earth industrial chain (controlling 60% of mining, 88% of smelting), uses export controls as a defensive response to U.S. tech suppression; the U.S., highly dependent on Chinese processed rare earths (90% of 2022 consumption), takes measures like reviving domestic industry and diversifying supply chains, with the 2025 Trump administration’s trade coercion intensifying the game.

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